TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ALERT STATEMENT

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS  

…TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE  LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…  

…A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND  BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN  ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A  TROPICAL STORM IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE  AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS…  

AT 5 AM ECT OR 0900Z, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR  ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST.KITTS AND NEVIS. 

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MILES PER HOUR. A  TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED  TO BEGIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD  SPEED.  

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR  SO. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AS PHILIPPE  MOVES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 150 MILES FROM THE  CENTRE.  

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB OR 29.50  INCHES.  

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD  ISLANDS. HENCE, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR  SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD  COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND BE PREPARED TO START TO  IMPLEMENT THEM.  

FORECASTING OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE REMAINS CHALLENGING.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST PATH. THE  CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER,  THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE COULD  COME VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS. HENCE IN THE REASONABLE  WORST CASE SCENARIO, PHILIPPE NOW POSES AN ELEVATED OR A  MINOR THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN  ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM  FORCE WINDS, BUT GREATER IMPACTS FROM ABOVE NORMAL SEA  SWELLS.  

AS A RESULT, WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR  PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF  TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE  ACTION TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS IF IT  BECOMES NECESSARY. 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 AM OR SOONER IF NECESSARY  ECT.  

FORECASTER  

JALEEL JACOBS

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